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In Q4 2024, Switzerland's GDP contracted by 0.2%, while the SMI stock index reached a record high above 13,000 points. Raiffeisen Group reported a 13.1% drop in profit due to a challenging interest rate environment, despite growth in the mortgage market and corporate client business. Meanwhile, the German economy faced a decline, impacted by weak exports and production in key sectors.
Zachary Gallant argues that Germany's failure to fully confront its Nazi past allows companies to retain profits from that era, influencing contemporary society and politics. He highlights that systemic issues persist, with Nazi heirs funding far-right movements like the AfD, undermining efforts to combat fascism. The legacy of Nazi wealth continues to shape various sectors, from culture to politics, revealing a troubling continuity rather than a resolved history.
Rheinmetall shares have surged 50% this year, with UBS analysts projecting a further 35% upside due to increased defense spending following the recent German elections. The company is considering shifting production from car parts to ammunition to meet rising demand, and its stock has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of €1,208. Despite potential challenges in changing fiscal policies, defense spending remains a priority, positioning Rheinmetall as a key beneficiary in the evolving landscape.
Rheinmetall AG is poised to benefit significantly from increased defense spending following the recent German election, with UBS raising its stock target by 35% to €1,208. The company’s shares have surged over 800% since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by new military orders and expectations of a coalition government prioritizing defense. Despite potential limitations on public borrowing, analysts anticipate that defense will remain a key focus, especially with upcoming NATO initiatives.
UBS has upgraded Rheinmetall shares from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the price target to EUR 1,208, citing the company's potential benefits from increased German defense spending and upcoming NATO discussions. Analyst Sven Weier highlights the strong support for Ukraine from future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, suggesting a favorable outlook for Rheinmetall amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite the stock's recent gains, the upward trend appears set to continue.
The euro rose 0.6% to 1.0520 dollars and gained 0.3% against the franc, while the Swiss stock exchange showed positive pre-market trading. Following the CDU/CSU's election victory, the Dax future increased by 1%, with expectations of political stability and increased government spending boosting market sentiment. Meanwhile, Asian shares fell slightly, and oil prices remained stable, with Brent crude at $74.43 per barrel.
Germany is set for crucial early elections following the collapse of Chancellor Scholz's coalition, driven by internal disputes over economic policies. Voters will elect members of the Bundestag using a mixed electoral system, with key parties like the CDU, AfD, and SPD vying for influence amid significant economic and geopolitical challenges. Current polls show the CDU leading with 30% support, while the FDP risks exclusion from parliament.
UBS analysis indicates a strong likelihood of the CDU/CSU alliance winning the majority in the upcoming German elections, with a 94% chance of securing the most seats and a 93% chance for Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor. Potential coalitions with the SPD or Greens could lead to a combined 69% of parliamentary seats, crucial for constitutional reforms like modifying the debt brake. Key debates among candidates are scheduled for February, with exit polls expected to provide early results on election night.
UBS analysis indicates a 94% chance that the CDU/CSU alliance will secure the most seats in the upcoming German elections, with a 93% likelihood of Friedrich Merz becoming Chancellor. Potential coalitions with the SPD or Greens could yield around 69% of parliamentary seats, but achieving a two-thirds majority for constitutional changes remains uncertain due to opposition from the AfD and Left Party. Key TV debates featuring leading candidates are scheduled for February, with initial election forecasts expected at 18:00 CET on election night.
UBS analysis indicates a 94% probability that the CDU/CSU will secure the most seats in the upcoming German elections, with a 93% chance of Friedrich Merz becoming Chancellor. A coalition with the SPD or Greens could yield around 69% of parliamentary seats, but a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments remains uncertain due to opposition from the AfD and other parties. Televised debates among key candidates are set for February, with exit polls expected to provide early insights on election night.
Friedrich Merz
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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